Tri-Cities Home Prices Set to Hold Flat Through December, NETAR Forecast Says

The Northeast Tennessee Association of REALTORS® published a market outlook on Aug. 2, 2026 concluding that Tri-Cities home prices are on track to hold steady through year-end. Most of this year's price growth already happened in the first half — Johnson City is up 10.5% year to date and Kingsport-Bristol is up 2.04% — leaving little room for further gains before December.

Why are Tri-Cities prices expected to stop climbing?

Two reasons: the gains are already banked, and financing is not getting cheaper. Johnson City's first-half jump passed every full-year forecast on the board, a pace that rarely holds through a full year. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at its last meeting, with three members wanting an increase — a signal that no rate relief is coming soon. The 30-year fixed sat at a yearly high of 6.76% as a weekly average.

What do the numbers actually say?

Where is the demand actually coming from?

The middle of the market. Tri-Cities buyers signed 815 purchase contracts in June — even with May and up 14.6% year over year. The affordable tier ($160,000–$299,999) carried the most volume at 336 contracts, up 19.1%, while the $300,000–$499,999 move-up bracket grew fastest at 275 contracts, up 22.2%. Those two tiers added 104 contracts between them, which matched the entire net gain over last June.

How fast are homes selling across the Tri-Cities?

It depends heavily on the town. Median time on market ranges from a few days to well over two months, with most submarkets holding two to three months of inventory — a combination that still favors sellers in price negotiations.

What this means if you own or buy here

• Sellers: price right on day one. When the forecast says prices are flat, an inflated asking price does not "test the market" — it burns weeks and usually ends in the price cut anyway. Well-priced, move-in-ready homes still hold their value; overpriced and fix-up listings are the ones sitting.
• Condition matters more than it did: with less urgency in the buyer pool, presentation and deferred maintenance now cost real dollars at the negotiating table.
• Buyers: you face less bidding pressure than in recent years, but waiting for a broad 2026 price drop is unlikely to pay off. The best-priced homes still move fast.
• Move-up sellers in the $300K–$500K band: this is the fastest-growing bracket in the market — 275 contracts in June, up 22.2%. That is your buyer pool, and it is deepening. A guaranteed-sale plan* lets you lock the sale so you can compete for the next house without a contingency dragging your offer down.

Sources: Northeast Tennessee Association of REALTORS® Market Pulse, Aug. 2, 2026; NETAR June 2026 pending home sales report, July 20, 2026; NETAR market snapshot on days on market and months of inventory; Zillow, Realtor.com and National Association of REALTORS® second-half 2026 outlooks as cited by NETAR.

*Tracy and seller must agree on price and possession date